One of the traits that helped me during my corporate finance career was learning how to be adaptable and flexible. Over the course of my Corporate career I faced some fairly challenging experiences:
- Took part in the closing of 2 MFG facilities;
- Involved in the movement of product which eventually resulted in the closure of 4 MFG facilities;
- Went through a chapter 11 bankruptcy;
- And was part of an organization that talked about change but at the end of the day wasn’t ready for the kind of change that I was trying to bring.
Sadly, after presenting my background to people they often wanted to run in the opposite direction or have me walk back out the door that I just came through. But being in these rather difficult situations allowed me see the perspectives of one situation from many different angles.
To the companies I was working with, these changes were merely business decisions that had to be made for the betterment of the overall company and its shareholders. From the employees’ perspective that were losing their positons, this wasn’t a business decision it was all personal. Then there was my perspective.
I could see both sides of the situation as I was often in the middle between the two groups. In some situations, my position was eliminated just like most if not all employees. While other times, I had another position to go to, often in a similar role with another difficult situation to deal with.
In some situations, poor decisions that were previously made by companies had unintentional consequences upon its employees. While other situations were a result of bad decisions made by the employees often due to their lack of flexibility and the ability to adapt to changing business conditions.
It’s this perspective that has also helped me in my investment career.
When considering any investment thesis, I try to find just as much data that opposes my viewpoint than agrees with it. There is a plethora of smart people within the asset management that may have an opposing view to my analysis which must be respected. In baseball you are considered a legend if you bat above .300. In the investment arena, world class is batting anywhere between .500 and .600. Thus, you have just as good a chance of being wrong than you do in being right.
Having an open mind within my investment process requires me to be both adaptable and flexible. Just like a good hitter in baseball can adjust to a good pitcher, so to must an investor adjust to not only the changing business landscape but also to changes in trends, and more importantly investor psychology.
What I Am Reading This Week
Economics is largely the study of making choices. I wish that I would have stressed this point more to my economic students last semester. There aren’t absolute laws in economics like there are in other hard and physical sciences such as chemistry and physics. However, there are some established tendencies and limits to economics such as the law of supply and demand when it does come to economics.
Typically, when the price of an item goes up, the demand goes down. There is an inverse relationship between price and the demand of goods. I say typically because sometime this does not occur in the short-run but over longer periods of time, this law or principle does hold true. I would refer to economics as a social science. And because of this social nature and the involvement of humans, we don’t always make the best economic decisions.
I often tell my wife, “here are our choices we can only do one of these three things let’s decide what our best option is.” In most cases, the decision comes down to the option that creates the least amount of pain. It is important to realize that with every economic decision, our decisions and actions have consequences. For example, spending can provide us with enjoyment (albeit mostly temporary), but it will also make us poorer.
In the animated video below, legendary economist Ha-Joon Chang, emphasizes that “Economics is for everyone.” As I often tell people who are trying to take the first step in the wealth planning process, don’t be paralyzed by the fear of the unknown. Similarly, economics and Wall Street jargon fit into that same category when it comes to having an impact on our decisions and actions. Don’t just believe what you hear or take things at face value. Take part in this self-educating world that we live in.
What I am Reading
An American President usually gets too much blame and too much credit for economic and stock market performance over the course of their presidency. There is the element of timing and uncontrollable events that can have a large impact on the figures below. Consider the Bush II era which began during the Tech bust but also included the 911 terrorist attacks, housing boom, and beginning of the subsequent housing bust which Obama partially inherited.
There is no shortage of articles that will tell you what impact a Clinton or Trump presidency will have upon the equity markets which is basic non-sense because no one knows. The best decision when it comes to politics is too keep it out of your portfolio decisions.
With that said, there is never going to be an absolute perfect time to invest in the equity markets. Market timing has been proven to be a risky and in most cases an unprofitable investment strategy in the long-run. I try to instill in both current and potential clients that having a consistent investment approach with an overarching layer of discipline should prove to profitable over the long-term. And when I say long-term I mean greater than 5 years.
Andrew Adams, an analyst at Raymond James who put together the chart below writes, "For most people, it can be a tough psychological battle to buy when the market is making new all-time highs since no one wants to risk getting in right before a major market top. Yet, history has shown us that you don't have to time it perfectly to make money in stocks in the long run."
I believe that these two charts demonstrate that no matter who may be in the oval office or at what level the equity markets may be trading at, a discipline and consistent investment strategy will likely provide a higher probability of investment success in order to achieve your financial and life goals.
What I am Reading
Last week I had put together a curated list of articles that I have been reading or have read over the past few months that focused on Self-Improvement, Career, Continuous Learning, and Investing. This week I am wrapping up this two part series with a focus on some broad topics which include Wealth Planning, Life Planning, Economics, and a few non-descript articles that I had come across. I hope that you find a few articles within the groups below that spark your interest.
- Your Retirement Adviser Will Think of You First (Bloomberg)
- A Deep Dive on Contingency Plans (A Wealth of Common Sense)
- The Pros and Cons of Using a Robot as an Investment Adviser (NYT)
- Pursuing the Right Goals (A Wealth of Common Sense)
- Renovations That Add Value to a Home: Think Shingles, Not Marble (NYT)
- Who needs a will? You do. Here’s why. (The Big Picture)
- Don’t Know Where Your Money Goes? That’s a Problem (WSJ)
- What’s the Right Asset Allocation For Young Investors? (A Wealth of Common Sense)
- 3 Ways to Make Money in the Markets (A Wealth of Common Sense)
- Simple vs Complex (The Reformed Broker)
- How to Raise the Next Mark Zuckerberg (WSJ)
- Three Ways to Think About ‘Is It Worth It?’ (NYT)
- The Money Letter That Every Parent Should Write (NYT)
- A Lottery Lawyer Explains What You Should Do if You Hit the Jackpot (Vice)
- The Downside to Cord-Cutting (NYT)
- 20 cognitive biases that screw up your decisions (Business Insider)
- 5 Things Warren Buffett Does After Work (Entrepreneur)
- To Break a Phone Addiction, Turn Your Screen Gray (The Atlantic)
- The 3 Stages of Failure in Life and Work (And How to Fix Them) (James Clear)
- How to Make It (The Big Picture)
- Kelly Evans of CNBC explains: Why I quit social media (CNBC)
- Why Does Crime Feel Exponentially Higher, When It's Materially Lower? (Econompicdata)
- Facebook Isn’t the Social Network Anymore (Slate)
- Mute Your Commute: The Best Noise-Canceling Headphones (WSJ)
- How Kids Learn Resilience (The Atlantic)
- The Four Burners Theory: The Downside of Work-Life Balance (James Clear)
- Most Americans Don’t Know About Ride-Sharing and the ‘Gig Economy’ (WSJ)
- Meet the Private Company That Has Changed the Face of the World (Fortune)
- The 99% Got a Raise Last Year, But Not Enough to Dent Rising Inequality (WSJ)
- Is U.S. Manufacturing Really in Decline? (strategy+business)
- Howard Marks: Adjust to Economic Reality (Barron's)
- The Secret Shame of Middle-Class Americans (The Atlantic)
- If Demographics Are Destiny… (A Wealth of Common Sense)
For this week and next week’s post, I am putting together a curated list of articles that I have been reading or have read over the past few months. On a weekly basis, I have typically included about 5 articles that I have read that I believe readers would find interesting at the end of each post. Unfortunately my reading list has grown significantly over the past few months so I thought that I would create two separate posts from my reading list.
This week I have focused on some broad categories which include, Self-Improvement, Career, Continuous Learning, and Investing. I hope that you find a few articles within the two groups below that spark your interest.
Self-Improvement, Career, & Continuous Learning
- How to Read a Book a Week (HBR)
- This Is The Most Inspiring Way To Be Happier And More Motivated (Barking Up The Wrong Tree)
- Why So Many Smart People Aren’t Happy (The Atlantic)
- On the ‘Stretching’ of Happiness (The Big Picture)
- The Evolution of Anxiety: Why We Worry and What to Do About It (James Clear)
- This Is How To Boost Emotional Resilience (Barking Up The Wrong Tree)
- This Is How To Make Good Habits Stick: 6 Secrets From Research (Barking Up The Wrong Tree)
- Resilience Is About How You Recharge, Not How You Endure (HBR)
- Take a Simple Idea and Take It Seriously (The Motley Fool)
- The Golden Age of Teaching Yourself Anything (Psychology Today)
- This Is The Best Way To Motivate Yourself To Exercise: 4 Proven Secrets (Barking Up The Wrong Tree)
- Ignoring LinkedIn Is Hurting Your Career (WSJ)
- The Incalculable Value of Finding a Job You Love (NYT)
- Why Luck Matters More Than You Might Think (The Atlantic)
- Why Americans Ignore the Role of Luck in Everything (NY Mag)
- Four Things the Stock Market Has Taught Me (WSJ)
- The emotional and psychological risks of investing (MarketWatch)
- Why We Think We’re Better Investors Than We Are (NYT)
- The Big Mistake Investors Still Make (WSJ)
- What if you sold 10 percent of Apple in 1976, like co-founder Ronald Wayne did? (Washington Post)
- Deconstructing 30 Year Stock Market Returns (A Wealth of Common Sense)
- Eleven Signs You Own the Right Portfolio (Johnathan Clements)
- Proof: Investors Are Their Own Worst Enemy (Forbes)
- 5 Things Investors Can Learn From Brexit Shock (WSJ)
- Given the Brexit brouhaha, how did your investments hold up? (The Washington Post)
- This Bull Market Is Powered by Your Indifference (Bloomberg)
- How Do You Break A Bad Investing Habit? (A Teachable Moment)
- Fundamentals are only half the story (The Reformed Broker)
- Performance vs. Outcomes (The Motley Fool)
- The Downside of Past Performance (A Wealth of Common Sense)